BernieHund: The Political Watchdog

March 4th, 2008 at 1:56 pm

Going Into Baby Super Tuesday

» by sinde in: Candidates

Going into the baby version of Super Tuesday the delegates stack up for Obama with 1378 and Clinton with 1269 according to CNN.  According to MSNBC Obama carries 1194 delegates into Baby Tuesday and Clinton carries 1037.  The difference seems to be in the Super Delegates who are pledged.  Of course, the pledged delegates have been known to change their “pledge” of late.

What’s up for grabs today?  Ohio, Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island.  The total of delegates to be divided today is 370.  Even if Obama or Clinton won every single delegate up for grabs on March 4th, neither would be put over the top.  Chances are there will be a much closer division and neither candidate will be able to claim the nomination.

With that in mind, the question that has been bantered about is whether Clinton should drop out if she doesn’t take both Texas and Ohio.  Winning either state, doesn’t necessarily mean much.  What counts is “how much”.  It appears that Senator Clinton would need a strong, very strong showing in both states and take Vermont and Rhode Island to boot to remain viable.  But, as we know, anything is possible.

While Obama has been riding a wave of momentum following eleven straight victories, yesterday’s polls and early polls today show that Clinton has gained some momentum of her own.  In fact, she may have regained a slight lead in both Texas and Ohio.

We can speculate all day long, read and study the exit polls that we know from past experience have been flawed, and count the number of voters to make projections, but in truth today is as much as toss up as if it were day one.  Of course, Hillary said she would be ready on day one.  This could be her chance.


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tags: Barack Obama   campaign   Hillary Clinton   Ohio   primaries   Texas  

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