BernieHund: The Political Watchdog

Jobless claims rose by 22,000 last week.   According to the Department of Labor

… applications for jobless benefits totaled 378,000 last week. That was an increase of 22,000 from the previous week and was a far bigger jump than had been expected.

The four-week average for new claims rose to 365,250, which was the highest level since a flood of claims caused by the 2005 Gulf Coast hurricanes.

There is still the question of recession.  Are we there or not?  Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics said

“We have no doubt that the trend in claims is upwards and is approaching the levels seen in the earlier stage of the recession in 2001.”

That’s the rub.  Are we approaching “recession” or are we there? 

A friend recently said to me that “recession” reminded her of childbirth.  It is the worst pain imaginable while it is happening, but once it is over, the pain is all but forgotten.  Perhaps there is some truth to that. 

I know we have had ups and downs in the economy during my lifetime.  There was an eight month recession from March 2001 to November 2001, and before that another eight month recession between July 1990 and March 1991.  Those were rather short lived.  Since WWII our nation has survived ten “recessions”, one lasting six months, the longest lasting sixteen months, and a full range in between. 

It’s easy to remember inflation, what has been called “sticker shock”.  Who could forget the days when depending on whether your license plate number ended with an odd number or an even number you could purchase gas?  It’s easy to remember general periods of time when I noticed that prices across the board went up.  Like so many interruptions in life, there is shock and as time passes we begin to accept it as the norm.   

There were times when I was working for a major corporation and to be honest, I didn’t really notice the “recession”.  I may have mentioned that “the price of eggs is up” or “airfare is on the rise”, but my income was sufficient to continue to go about my life as usual. 

This “recession” seems different.  Whether we are heading for it or in the middle of it, there is a look to this economic period that is new and different from anything in my memory.  During the past recessions of my life time, a family’s economic problems stayed in the home.  There may have been discussion that prices were rising, or that inflation was biting into the family wallet.  Visions of The Grapes of Wrath didn’t come to mind.

During this economic downturn, the signs are much more overt.  As I drive through some of the more “affluent” areas I see record numbers of homes for sale, prices slashed.  In other areas I see empty houses with no signs out front.  Yesterday I was going to one of my favorite stores, a mom and pop shop that was locally owned.  The building was empty.  I noticed that in the small block almost half of the store fronts were empty.  All had been locally owned enterprises.  I had to wonder if the business owners had loaded their families onto an old pick up truck and headed west.

Over the past weekend as the Fed, backing JP Morgan Chase, consumed the carcass of the Bear, the media saw fit to replay the bank run scene from “It’s a Wonderful Life”.  I have to say that was not encouraging for those of us who have no real influence on our economic futures.  With the dollar decreasing in value, I wonder if we had a run on the banks and came out with paper money in bags, what would it be worth?  We have been encouraged to save.  The dollars we saved have faded in value since we took them to the bank. 

This period in our national economic life is frightening to many of us.  I feel the uneasiness as I watch the price of eggs go up 50% over the past year.  I felt my stomach sink as I approached the gas pump.  Gas prices had flirted with $3.00 a gallon over the past few months but now prices over $3.00 a gallon have been the norm for the past month.  I believe we have broken the barrier.  In January we nibbled at $3.00 as the high.  Today we gage the price, using $3.00 as the base. 

Maybe the wide coverage of all things negative has added to the national unease.  Or maybe, we would just like to know if we are in a recession or still heading for one.  Perhaps, instead of spreading fear of doom and gloom, someone could tell us, the people, what we can expect.  We know it won’t be the Fed bailing us out as they did the bank.  So, who is speaking up or taking action for the rest of us? 

I forgot… the check’s in the mail.  Some would prefer a job.