General David Petraeus sat before the Congress when I tuned into CNN this morning. My first glimpse of the general made me think that I had tuned into Madame Tousseau’s Wax Museum. Then, the volume turned up and I understood his plight. John McCain was droning his way through his opening statements.
Following the McCain opening, General Petraeus opened with his own words bringing us up to date from his last statement seven months ago. Touting the progress in Iraq, Petraeus said that the Iraqi forces have grown, that we are working together with the Iraqi’s, that the Sunni’s have “awakened” and are taking part. The recent “flare up” in Basara showed the destructive role Iran has played. Our tasks are to build on the progress we have made while continuing with the draw down of American forces. Al-Qaeda funds the extremists and special groups in Iraq. However, most parties have agreed that the way forward is through discussion. The period ahead is a sensitive one. Civilian deaths have decreased significantly. Ethno-sectarian violence has decreased since last September. Coalition and Iraqi forces have worked together.
There are over 91,000 Sons of Iraq who are contributing to the welfare of Iraq. The Sons of Iraq have over 21,000 that have been integrated into the Iraqi police and military. The cumulative effect of Al-Qaeda in some neighborhoods has diminished. Defeating Al-Qaeda in Iraq requires more than soldiers. We must remember that defeating AQI will help stabilize Iraq. Together with Iraqi security forces, we have taken on other extremists forces. Iraqi leaders have expressed that they wish Iran to live up to the promise not to fund extremists.
Currently, half of the Iraqi provences are under Iraqi control. Forces have grown significantly, 540,000 now in place. The performance of many of the Iraqi forces has been significant. The training base operated by the Iraqi’s have added over 130,000 in the past 16 months. Iraq will spend over $8 Billion on their own security forces this year. Supplies and replacements are being supplied on relatively short notice.
While security has improved in many areas, some areas remain under watch. We must watch Iran’s influence. In the coming months Iraq must improve its governmental controls and activities. General Petraeus requested that Congress approve funding by June to continue the War.
Draw down to 15 brigades as soon as conditions permit. The operational consideration that the surge has worked but is reversible. Time will be required and drawing down forces too quickly will put too much strain on the Iraqi’s and could cause a failed state in Iraq. After weighing the factors, after drawing down troops as planned through June, Petraeus suggested a 45 day pause to determine when more troops can be sent home.
General Petraeus spoke of the strain on our forces. Nothing means more to those in harm’s way than to know they and their families have the support from home.
Ambassador Crocker spoke, asking if Iraq could develop into a stable country. Developments over the last seven months have been encouraging. Continuing US resolve is imperative, but progress is reversible. In the last several months Iraq has passed legislation to stabilize the country. Crocker recited several laws that have been passed by the Iraqi legislation. All major parties support provencial elections this year and national elections by the end of 2009. The laws are not perfect and much depends on the implementation. Parliament has suffered in the past, but is now grappling with compromise trade-offs. Politics have become more fluid. Coalitions have formed around issues.
Attitudes among the Iraqi people and the awakening of the Sunni’s have brought about some security in a few areas. Other groups have begun to overcome sectarian affiliations and transcend their differences. Crocker gave antedotes to express the progress. Crocker believes the surge is working.
At last he brought up the “agreement” with the U.S., apparently the one leaked in U.K. yesterday. The agreement will not tie the hands of the next administration. Congress will remain fully informed as negotiations continue. There are still challenges to the rule of law in Iraq, and all the usual rhetoric that goes with the mumbo-jumbo of hopeful gloss over.
Economically, there have been some gains and have built on them since September. Seventy-eight percent of Iraqi business owners expect the economy to grow. Iraq expressed desire to buy 40 commercial aircraft from the U.S. The era of US funded infrastructure in Iraq is over. As Iraq is increasingly using its own resources, the US needs to fund the requests before Congress to help.
No matter what the so-called progress is was always mentioned that it is reversible. Along with the military surge, we have launched a diplomatic surge. The UN has taken part in increasing the size of its staff. They will take part in the reintegration of refugees. There are expanded “neighbors” conferences including Turkey and Kuwait. The Arab world has not taken as great a role. The first major inter-Arab meeting took place a few weeks ago. It was the first meeting under the new Iraqi flag.
There was mention of Syria, Turkey and Iran as those who are financing extremists activities. We will continue to uproot and destroy these militia groups and to improve security. There was throughout both introductory speeches, from Petraeus and Crocker, mention of the danger Iran presents. Osama bin Laden has said that Iraq is the perfect basecamp. We must continue to support Iraq and fight al-Qaeda, as they are losing ground.
Both Petraeus and Crocker closed by thanking the troops for their service.
Levin questioned the 45 day period in draw downs to evaluate before commencing an assessment and over time there will be an evalutation. Levin mentioned that there was no indication of an end in sight. Petraeus countered that as conditions are met over time that further reductions can be made.
Bring them home. Bring them home. That was an outbreak in the back of the room. It lasted less than a minute before the protesters were removed.
Levin continued, “If all goes well what would be the approximate number of troops at the end of the year?”
Petraeus could not give an estimate.
Levin quoted from the NYT article that Petraeus had told al-Maliki not to make hasty decisions.
Petraeus said forces went into action more quickly and did not follow the advice of Petraeus.
Were the operations well planned and were preparations adequate? Petraeus was pressed hard by Levin and said that the plan was logical and tried to cover for the obvious failure of al-Maliki’s confrontation in Basara. Levin concluded that the open ended plan of Petaeus was not suitable as it put no pressure on Iraq.
Petraeus did not recommend the Basara confrontation, admittedly when asked by McCain. One lesson is that relatively new forces were pressed into operation. McCain added that the Basara confrontation was a disappointment.
McCain added, the Green Zone is being attacked in ways it has not been attacked before. Petraeus responded that Iraqi security forces are going to have to come together. Of course, McCain once again confused the players, still uncertain about the difference between al-Qaeda and the Shi’ite.
McCain questioned the al-Sadr “cease fire”. Petraeus said that it was to look as if the al-Sadr movement was looking after the downtrodden, although it has been hijacked by other forces.
McCain asked if al-Qaeda was still a major threat. Petraeus agreed, but not to the point it has been. Al-Qaeda has been reduced, but not eliminated and continues to be a significant effect.
McCain questioned Crocker on the “agreement”. Crocker envisions it as helping succeed in the conflict. It will have some unique aspects to give our forces the authority to continue with their actions and reflects the declaratin of principles that al-Maliki and Bush signed last year.
Senator Kennedy, on the bilateral agreement, said that he understood it would not include the defense of Iraq. Crocker said it would be executed as an “executive agreement” and would not come before Congress.
Kennedy said we have been described one Iraq when we see another. He questioned the open ended troop deployment. The President and VP describe an Iraq where the Iraqi oil would pay for the war. Americans want to know with $24 B and over 5 years when will the Iraqi’s be ready to defend their country.
Petraeus said that the Iraqi’s are very much fighting and dying for their country. In Basara, there were not just the units that didn’t do well. Some did well.
Kennedy, mentioned the over 4,000 Americans that have been killed. Kennedy asked why we were fighting internal groups when our mission was supposed to be to fight al-Qaeda. Petraeus and Crocker responded that they had not been in any meetings that led up to Basara.
John Warner sounded weak in the beginning. In fact, as he seemed to kiss ass, he sounded like a doddering old fool. John McCain could be heard in the background making jokes and laughing. He should have turned his microphone off, perhaps. However, Warner came back strong asking both Petraeus and Crocker if Iraq is worth the cost in lives and money?
Warner asked about the “agreement”, asking if we are leveraging the agreement to gain basic goals in Iraq. Crocker said the talks were not yet underway. Warner added that a military solution is not possible and that an element of the negotiations must be for diplomatic reconciliation.
Joe Lieberman reiterated some of the highlights of the previous statements. He went on to say that most of his Congressional colleagues looked at it as see no progress, as hear no progress, say no progress. Lieberman wants us to move towards success by listening to the facts. Lieberman asked if Iranians are still backing forces that are killing American soldiers.
Petraeuse jumped on the question to respond that the Iranians have the expertise to shoot more accurately and they have been used to assassinate two southern Iraqi governors. The Iraqi’s have voiced their concern to the Iranians.
Lieberman got Petraeus to go down the road talking about Iran’s impact on the war.
Isn’t there something very encouraging about the Iraqi government taking on Basara? Crocker agreed that the political ramifications are more positive than the military. The government is prepared to go after the extremist elements, whoever they may be. The reflection of that is in the level of support behind the Iraqi government.
Senator Inhofe asked about the detainee issue. The far left is going to try to paint a picture of torture. Inhofe said that he had through an interpreter talked to detainees and they were happy with their treatment. Right….
Petraeus said the irreconcilibles had been separated and that some detainees had asked to stay in detention to finish their education. Food is good. Healthcare is good. Education is good.
Inhofe said that Iran had offered to fill the void if the U.S. pulled out. Crocker responded that Iran is equipping the militia groups and trying the same strategies they used in Lebanon to gain control. In the event of a withdrawal the Iranians would push that much harder.
Inhofe said that the troops he spoke to said that they were pleased with the Iraqi performance. Petraeus said he did not want to overstate the Iraqi accomplishments in Basara.
Senator Jack Reid asked if the Mahdi army would disband at the request of the Iraqi government. Petraeus said that al-Sadr would stand down at the request of the senior Shi’a clergy. (That’s a no.) Petraeus said that they are looking for some alternative to the Basara militia. Over 90,000 Sons of Iraq are on the rolls right now and will be taken into the Iraqi army eventually.
Reid assumed that Petraeus was telling the al-Maliki to go slow. Petraeus said Basara went much faster than expected. The sheer presence of the Iraqi army did nothing to slow down the militia.
To Crocker, Reid asked if the Iranians were the only ones in touch with the militia. Crocker responded that there are other forces that are getting influence of Iran. Iran has a dialogue with everyone, not just the Shi’a community.
Senator Sessions asked Petraeus how he would evaluate our prospects for success. Petraeus said we have made progress and will continue to make progress. Sessions thinks we are making real progress and said we need to listen to Petraeus and Crocker.
Sessions said that in the act of going into Basara, the Iraqi government showed they have initiative to take control of their government. Crocker said there is a change in tone towards the Prime Minister al-Maliki. Crocker is cautious about defining moments, but time will tell.
Are the Iraqi’s evaluationg what they did in Basara? Petraeus said the Iraqi’s did an “after action” review for the operation in Baghdad. The bulk of the weaponry in Basara came from Iran. Petraeus named the items from Iran. Iran, at the end of the day, played an arbiter in the roles of all players in Basara.
Crocker added that the militia actions in Basara were very unpopular. There may be a reconsideration in Iran as to where they want to go in Iraq. No country suffered more than Iran when Hussein was in power. Crocker hopes that the Iranians will reconsider.
Senator Akaka asked if most of the soldiers being redeployed are getting only six months of home time with their families before going back to Iraq? Petraeus said a 15 month tour is a strain on the troops. Petraeus took this into consideration with his future plans. Despite how much we ask of our men and women, they recognize the need and many have re-enlisted.
Senator Collins said that it seems to her that every time someone comes before Congress “success is just around the corner.” Why should American forces take the lead after spending billions of dollars on training? To which Petraeus responded that the Iraqi’s did take the lead most recently in Basara. We did provide a number of enablers. Petraeus went on the mention other areas where we are guiding hands but Iraqi’s are leading the way.
Collins questioned “a thousand forces?” referring to those Iraqi’s who laid down their weapons in Basara when they came under fire.
She turned her attention to Ambassador Crocker. She brought up the cost of oil. If the era for paying for major Iraqi reconstruction is over, why are we still paying for gas and oil in Iraq and why are we still paying the Sons of Iraq. The original proposal was based on oil being at a high of $50 a barrel and Collins questioned that with the windfall, shouldn’t Iraq be assuming some of the costs?
Senator Bill Nelson framed his questions within the context of a year ago. The military surge would stablize the area for political reconciliation. Nelson mentioned testimony from last week from two retired military servicemen that was most unfavorable to the present situation. Nelson asked, “Has the political reconciliation happened?” Petraeus tried to talk about various laws that lead to reconciliaton. In other words, Nelson was demanding to know if the surge has worked. (The answer is “no”, but Petraeus and Crocker tap danced around giving a flat negative.)
Senator Graham would wave the magic wand if possible and give Petraeus 5 stars and send Crocker to “some place good”. And, I thought Mr. Rogers died! Graham went on to say that we have been kicking Al-Qaeda all over Iraq. What is the biggest success of the surge?
Petraeus agreed that the shift towards the US from the Al-Qaeda is occurring.
In fact, it seemed that Graham tried as hard as possible to put sweet tarts and chocolate kisses all over his line of questioning when in fact, his questioning was nothing beyond an opportunity to get good soundbites for the evening news. Unfortunately, Petraeus and Crocker were only slightly more honest in their responses. Perhaps, we needed a break. But, I almost felt as if I was back in Haight-Ashbury, with flowers in my hair, waiting for Jesus to come down and spread good cheer. Oh, but I was probably stoned that day… And, from Graham’s questions today, I wonder what he’s been toking.
Senator Ben Nelson mentioned that he would take up where Collins left off. We should be able to get our money back from Iraq after the reconstruction. Nelson said he would make any other money to Iraq a loan for reconstruction by putting forth a bill in Congress. Soon is now.
Crocker stammered and was off guard.
Nelson referred to Wolfowitz saying that Iraq could finance their own reconstruction. Crocker …. ah…. ah… ammm… ah… am… military spending…. ah…. amm…. post kinetic aid…. ah…. am….
Nelson nailed Crocker. Iraq needs to be financing more. They are adding $50 B to their coffers and our country is in economic slump.
Crocker said the Iraqi’s may not be able to identify the funds…. ah…. am…. hmm…. ahhh…
Nelson nailed Crocker again. We will loan them the money. They can pay us back.
Crocker… ah…. ammm…. hm…. ah…
Senator Thune was up next. Senator Ben Nelson was one hard act to follow. Let’s hear it for NELSON!
Thune wanted to know if al-Sadr was in control or if it is the Iranians. Petraeus said that al-Sadr is first and foremost a political movement. The militia are basically armed by Iran. “The hand of Iran was very clear in recent weeks.”
Thune asked about money. Petraeus mentioned that sometimes small sums (I don’t know what “small” is in this context) are helpful, such as paying Sons of Iraq. Apparently, the military has access to cash to pay for what they need on the ground in situations that warrant it.
Senator Thune said that testimony last week was that our army is totally prepared. Petraeus said that we are well supplied. The units are exceptionally well trained and this is the best army he has seen in 34 years. He spoke of the tools and how all areas were working together. Yada… Yada… Yada… And, what is it about our military taking on anyone in the middle of the desert in open warfare? That’s not the war we are fighting.
Senator Clinton said that she fundamentally disagreed with those who said to remove troops in a careful way. The purpose of the surge was to create the space to make political progress. Petraeus has said that there has not been real political progress (three weeks ago). We would have already assigned forces to other places were it not for Iraq. We are prevented from being ready on other fronts if we need them. Clinton mentioned that the administration keeps saying we are about to turn a corner.
Clinton asked Crocker about the “agreement”. Crocker said that there is no “advise and consent” procedure so it would not come before Congress. Clinton mentioned that if the Iraqi Congress had the opportunity to vote on the agreement it seems that our Congress should have a vote.
What conditions have to exist for Petraeus to recommend to the president that the surge is not working? Clinton asked how we are to judge the conditions in Iraq.
Petraeus responded that in some areas there has been progress, but not as much as we would have liked. He stated that in respect to the conditions there are a number of factors they can make by area. The factors are enemy situations, friendly situations, and others that come into play with the reductions of troops. At the end of the day, it involves commanders sitting down with Iraqi’s and deciding where reduction of forces can occur.
Clinton asked about the meeting on planning to resource missions in Basara.
Petraeus said that there was a plan, a deliberate process, to add to the resources in Basara, and a phased plan over a series of months. Al-Maliki decided the process was taking too long and that more immediate action was needed and as a soverign nation, al-Maliki moved up the deployment much more rapidly than expected. (Well, yeah.)
Senator Martinez followed up. Crocker reponded that Iran kept stalling on talks. Martinez said it is hard to talk to someone who doesn’t want to talk. Petraeus said the weapons for the militia have come from Iran.
Martinez would prefer to see NATO pick up slack in Afghanistan rather than redeploying troops from Iraq.
Senator Pryor spoke of the charts Petraeus had used and asked why we haven’t seen more progress. Petraeus said that when people reached a certain level in the training, the Iraqi’s took them into their fold.
Pryor asked if more weapons are flooding into Iraq than ever before. Petraeus said that we have had little presence in those areas in the past, so we are now discovering the weapons in areas we are in for the first time, or areas where we haven’t been for some time.
When asked about al-Sadr, Crocker said that for the past year al-Sadr has been studying in Iran for the most part. None of this, according to Crocker, relates to the receptivity of the Sadr trend. It seems to Crocker that the Sadr is not going about taking over control in the right way.
Petraeus, upon questioning, said he has been given everything he has asked.
Senator Wicker thinks there has been a dramatic difference since the surge began. It would take a major suspension of disbelief to think things have not improved. Progress is fragile but undeniable. The question before the country is do we procede on with this proven success. History would view the Congress as foolish if we were to leave Iraq now. Wicker praised Petraeus for saying that the effort in Iraq is working.
Wicker has been told that the average age of a combat troop is about 20 years old. Petraeus confirmed. Wicker said that meant that most of the troops probably joined when our prospects were at the lowest in 2006. He compared the those troops to Abraham Lincoln and George Washington. Could you give us a profile of the troops?
Petraeus said that Tom Brokaw had it right when he said that this is the new greatest generation. The members of this force enlist to do something better and bigger than themselves. In combat, they serve most of all for the trooper on their left and right. The concept of the brotherhood of the fight is something that changes all who experience it.
Senator McCaskill focused on the financial circumstances. The Sons of Iraq is on one of the charts. There are about 90,000 Sons of Iraq and how do we get the Iraqi’s to pay for them. How long are we going to pay them? To Ambassador Crocker, other countries are paying to offset some of the costs for bases in their countries. When will Iraq start to pay.
Petraeus said that the Iraqi’s are beginning to have initiatives to assume some of the responsibility. It is much more challenging than we had assumed when we started with the Sons of Iraq, since the group is primarily Suni. We are seeing more and more burden sharing and cost sharing. Iraq will provide more over time.
Crocker said the talks were just getting underway. It is an interesting point.
McCaskill said we need to make a good faith effort to force the Iraqi’s to help pay for that which we have said will be there when we leave. It will be illiminating to the Americans one way or another.
The senator said that al-Sadr won from a political position. al-Maliki could not deliver a crushing blow. Crocker tried to give it “a different reading.”
Isn’t it true that al-Sadr ended up with a stronger hand? Crocker tried to spin it differently, but there were way too many of those ah…. ammm…. ahh.. to satisfy anyone’s speculation.
Senator Chambliss asked about the small business loans and Petraeus responded favorably.
Of course, Senator Biden put the bow on the present. We have no end in site and we won’t know when to expect an end to the war until it’s over.
And while the testimony goes on and is getting repetitive, it’s time for a break before the two testify this afternoon. The bottom line seems that maybe the Iraqi’s and the detainees are eating well, getting healthcare and education, along with small business loans all at our expense. Looks like the Republicans are far more willing to give entitlements to the Iraqis than to American citizens.
